The war with Iran drew down U.S. stocks of interceptors and cruise missiles faster than industry can rebuild them. Federal spending on missiles and munitions nearly doubled in response. This report covers where that money went, why so little of it went to new suppliers, and where small manufacturers can still get in.
Built from federal obligation records for product groups 13 (ammunition & explosives) and 14 (guided missiles), 24,413 award records for these product groups in FedSift's award index, 1,253 SAM.gov notices posted May–September 2026, and the SAM registrations of the firms involved. Six limits matter enough to state before the numbers.
The U.S. and Israel began strikes on Iran on 28 February 2026. A ceasefire followed in April. The weapons spent in those weeks were the expensive ones, and the U.S. has been signing deals to replace them ever since.
"The United States will need at least three years to restore an array of critical weapons systems to prewar levels."
CSIS analysis, as reported by Defense News, 27 May 2026CSIS estimates that rebuilding THAAD reserves runs to mid-to-late 2029 and Tomahawk to 2030 or 2031. These are the high-end interceptors and cruise missiles a production line takes years to replace.
The Department of War signed seven-year agreements to triple PAC-3 and quadruple THAAD output. The Army then added $53.86B to Lockheed's existing PAC-3 contract. L3Harris and Northrop Grumman signed rocket-motor deals.
A five-year Navy award to Raytheon to accelerate SM-6 production. On the same day the Army asked industry how to fix the explosives supply chain beneath all of it (§06).
The framework agreements are not binding contracts, and the PAC-3 action is undefinitized, so its value and quantities can still change. Budget context: FY2027 began on 1 October under a continuing resolution that runs to 11 December 2026 (CRS). Standard continuing-resolution language bars new multiyear procurements unless Congress makes an exception.
From October 2025 to February 2026, obligations ran almost exactly at the prior year's pace ($8.6B against $8.2B). From March to June they ran at 2.5× ($28.7B against $11.6B). By June, FY2026 had already reached 86% of all of FY2025.
| Rank | Product (PSC) | FY25 Oct–Jun $M | FY26 Oct–Jun $M | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guided missiles 1410 | 8,455.9 | 21,445.4 | 2.5× |
| 2 | Guided missile systems, complete 1425 | 2,885.7 | 4,338.8 | 1.5× |
| 3 | Guided missile components 1420 | 2,670.9 | 3,381.7 | 1.3× |
| 4 | Missile launchers 1440 | 1,146.3 | 2,452.1 | 2.1× |
| 5 | Bombs 1325 | 1,266.4 | 2,165.6 | 1.7× |
| 6 | Ammunition over 125mm 1320 | 94.7 | 533.3 | 5.6× |
| 7 | Ammunition through 30mm 1305 | 518.9 | 421.0 | 0.81× |
| 8 | Ammunition 75mm–125mm 1315 | 774.3 | 411.6 | 0.53× |
| 9 | Bulk explosives 1376 | 379.9 | 350.6 | 0.92× |
| 10 | Ammunition 30mm–75mm 1310 | 193.9 | 346.2 | 1.8× |
| 11 | Torpedoes and components, inert 1355 | 314.1 | 346.0 | 1.1× |
| 12 | Fuzes and primers 1390 | 247.8 | 187.2 | 0.76× |
| 13 | Guided missile subsystems 1427 | 117.0 | 186.1 | 1.6× |
| 14 | Pyrotechnics 1370 | 69.1 | 170.4 | 2.5× |
| 15 | Cartridge & propellant actuated devices 1377 | 96.7 | 170.4 | 1.8× |
From October to June, Lockheed Martin took 49.8% of missile and munitions obligations and RTX took 27.0%. A year earlier their combined share was 68.7%. The number of firm groups receiving any money fell from 578 to 474. The surge went to the firms that already held the production lines.
| Rank | Firm (parent) | FY26 Oct–Jun $M | Share | FY25 share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lockheed Martin | 18,607.3 | 49.8% | 36.0% |
| 2 | RTX (Raytheon) | 10,084.2 | 27.0% | 32.7% |
| 3 | Boeing | 1,407.5 | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| 4 | Dynetics (Leidos) | 1,094.1 | 2.9% | 1.0% |
| 5 | Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace | 820.2 | 2.2% | 1.8% |
| 6 | Northrop Grumman | 748.2 | 2.0% | 3.9% |
| 7 | General Dynamics | 663.8 | 1.8% | 4.2% |
| 8 | RAM-System GmbH | 487.3 | 1.3% | 2.2% |
| 9 | AMTEC Corporation | 282.0 | 0.8% | 0.7% |
| 10 | L3Harris (incl. Aerojet Rocketdyne) | 265.1 | 0.7% | 1.3% |
In an emergency, the fastest way to buy more missiles is to modify a contract the producer already holds. The data shows that is what happened. Every new munitions award that started between October and June has a combined lifetime value of $8.6B, which caps its share of the $37.4B at 23%. At least 77% of the money was added to contracts signed before the war.
| Contracts with any action, Oct 2025 – Jun 2026 | Contracts | Lifetime obligations $B |
|---|---|---|
| Started before FY2021 | 214 | 65.62 |
| Started FY2021 – FY2023 | 439 | 46.28 |
| Started FY2024 – FY2025 | 849 | 46.14 |
| Started in FY2026 | 1,159 | 7.63 |
| Extent of competition, new awards Oct 2025 – Jun 2026 | Awards | $M | Share of $ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Not competed (sole source) | 147 | 4,860.4 | 56.8% |
| Not available for competition (statute, international agreement) | 46 | 2,251.0 | 26.3% |
| Full and open after exclusion of sources (incl. set-asides) | 56 | 862.1 | 10.1% |
| Full and open competition | 383 | 551.8 | 6.4% |
| Competed under simplified acquisition | 493 | 24.0 | 0.3% |
| Not competed under simplified acquisition | 107 | 7.3 | 0.1% |
We compared the text of all 1,253 missile and munitions notices posted May–September 2026 against the 183,381 other federal notices that carry a product code, over the same window. Munitions buyers post more Sources Sought and more pre-solicitations, and their notices carry far heavier testing and security requirements.
| What the notice says | Munitions | All federal | Ratio | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First article test or lot acceptance testing required | 8.6% | 1.3% | 6.7× | qualification |
| Foreign Military Sales (buying for an ally) | 4.1% | 0.9% | 4.5× | allied demand |
| Capacity language (second source, surge, production capacity, industrial base) | 5.1% | 2.6% | 2.0× | new sources |
| Pre-solicitation notice | 11.3% | 6.0% | 1.9× | pipeline |
| Classified, export-controlled (ITAR) or Joint Certification Program required | 35.0% | 18.8% | 1.9× | barrier |
| Sources Sought (buyer asking who exists) | 10.7% | 5.8% | 1.8× | market research |
| Sole-source language | 15.3% | 9.4% | 1.6× | elevated |
| Small-business set-aside of any kind | 23.5% | 40.9% | 0.58× | well below norm |
These are real notices from the last four months. The ones still open on 6 October are marked open.
| Notice | Buyer | Type · status |
|---|---|---|
| Energetics Center of Excellence: ideas and a possible public-private partnership to rebuild explosives capacity at Blue Grass Army Depot, Kentucky | Army, ACC-Rock Island | RFI · open to 2 Nov |
| Special Ammunition and Weapons Systems (SAWS): multiple-award IDIQ for non-standard and foreign-made ammunition | Army, ACC-Rock Island | Solicitation · open to 19 Oct |
| Evolved SeaSparrow Missile, next significant variant | Navy | Sources Sought · open to 19 Oct |
| BLU-138/B penetrator warhead | Air Force | Sources Sought · open to 9 Oct |
| 155mm artillery canister assembly | Army, Picatinny | Sources Sought · open to 8 Oct |
| Explosive shape charges for the F-16 spin chute recovery system | Air Force | Sources Sought · open to 12 Oct |
| Low-Cost Interceptor industry day, Army Portfolio Acquisition Executive Fires | Army, RCCTO Redstone | Special Notice · June |
| Patriot M903 launching stations (24) for the Lower Tier Interceptor | Army | Posted as Sources Sought · intent to sole-source to Raytheon |
4,780 active, non-excluded SAM registrants list a munitions or missile manufacturing NAICS code. 1,811 of them are small under at least one of those codes. Only 404 have won a missile or munitions award that started since FY2024. On awards starting between October and June, small businesses took 13.5% of the dollars across 672 of 1,232 awards.
| Segment, new awards Oct 2025 – Jun 2026 | Awards | $M | Small share of $ | Small share of awards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Missiles, components, launchers, missile propulsion 14xx, 1336–1338 | 466 | 5,880.3 | 14.5% | 74.2% |
| Bombs and rockets 1325, 1340 | 22 | 1,386.0 | 6.2% | 40.9% |
| Medium and large-caliber ammunition 1310–1320 | 41 | 738.9 | 19.0% | 70.7% |
| Energetics, fuzes, pyrotechnics, demolition, CADs 1370–1377, 1390 | 98 | 237.8 | 3.5% | 49.0% |
| Small-arms ammunition 1305 | 396 | 184.5 | 13.3% | 31.3% |
| Other ordnance (torpedoes, EOD tools, grenades, kits) 13xx | 209 | 129.3 | 35.3% | 55.5% |
| Registered bench (munitions & missile NAICS) | Firms |
|---|---|
| Active SAM registrations, not excluded, in NAICS 325920 · 332992 · 332993 · 336414 · 336415 · 336419 | 4,780 |
| Small under at least one of those codes | 1,811 |
| Women-owned (self-reported) | 611 |
| Service-disabled veteran-owned (self-reported) | 525 |
| HUBZone, current certification | 94 |
| 8(a), current certification | 58 |
| Won a missile or munitions award starting FY2024 or later | 404 |
Of the 1,253 notices, 295 (23.5%) carried a set-aside: 258 for small business, 13 for 8(a), 12 for women-owned, 9 for SDVOSBs, 2 for Indian small business economic enterprises and 1 for HUBZone. The federal rate across all notices is 40.9%. Classification, explosives licensing and first-article testing keep most munitions work out of set-aside programs, so a small manufacturer usually enters as a supplier to a prime or through a component buy.
| Rank | Small-business winner (as reported on award) | State | FY24–FY26 $M | Awards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AeroVironment | CA | 728.5 | 9 |
| 2 | AMTEC Corporation | WI | 293.9 | 5 |
| 3 | IMT Defense Corp | — | 245.2 | 3 |
| 4 | Castelion Corporation | CA | 234.2 | 3 |
| 5 | Mistral Inc | MD | 191.8 | 2 |
| 6 | Intuitive Research and Technology | AL | 182.7 | 2 |
| 7 | Global Military Products | FL | 161.0 | 9 |
| 8 | Faxon Machining | OH | 142.9 | 5 |
| 9 | Action Manufacturing Company | PA | 113.7 | 3 |
| 10 | Simulation Technologies | TX | 113.5 | 2 |
77% of the money moved through Lockheed and RTX contracts, and tripling PAC-3 and quadrupling THAAD output means their supplier lists must grow. Housings, canisters, fins, launcher structures and handling equipment are machined parts. Register as a supplier with the primes' supply-chain programs and point at the specific line.
Bulk explosives and fuzes fell while missiles rose 2.5×, and only 3.5% of new energetics dollars went to small firms. The Army's Energetics Center of Excellence RFI asks industry for capacity ideas through a possible public-private partnership. Responses are due 2 November.
Munitions notices require first-article or lot-acceptance testing at 6.7× the federal rate. A firm that has already passed one holds the scarcest qualification in the market. The 155mm canister, the BLU-138 warhead and the F-16 shape-charge notices are all asking who can build to drawing today.
Nine SDVOSB and thirteen 8(a) munitions set-asides in five months is a short list, so most of them reach few bidders. 525 registered SDVOSBs and 58 current 8(a) firms list a munitions code. Watch the set-asides with an alert rather than browsing for them.
Low-Cost Interceptor and alternate-interceptor industry days ran in June and August, and the Navy is prototyping a terminal-stage interceptor. Those are the openings where the primes do not yet hold the line. Castelion's appearance among the top small winners shows a new entrant can get there.
Between April 2027 and March 2028, 538 missile and munitions contracts held by 228 incumbents reach their current end date, carrying $29.6B. That window is 6–18 months out, when the next buy is still being shaped. Unlike aircraft parts, the money here is concentrated in a few very large contracts. The 373 contracts under $10M carry only $0.61B, and small firms hold 163 contracts worth $1.17B.
| Rank | Incumbent (legal entity) | $M ending | Contracts | Buyers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lockheed Martin Corporation | 9,020.5 | 25 | 4 |
| 2 | Raytheon Company | 7,760.0 | 27 | 5 |
| 3 | Olin Winchester | 1,602.7 | 10 | 5 |
| 4 | The Boeing Company | 1,602.2 | 35 | 4 |
| 5 | Northrop Grumman Systems Corporation | 904.2 | 18 | 4 |
| 6 | Canadian Commercial Corporation | 891.1 | 10 | 3 |
| 7 | American Ordnance | 728.3 | 7 | 1 |
| 8 | General Dynamics-OTS, Inc. | 684.1 | 5 | 2 |
| 9 | General Dynamics OTS (Wilkes-Barre) | 612.9 | 1 | 1 |
| 10 | AeroVironment | 532.9 | 5 | 1 |
Flat until February, then 2.5× from March to June. That is before the $53.9B PAC-3 action and the $24.4B SM-6 award, which are not yet in the data.
Lockheed and RTX went from 68.7% to 76.7%. The number of firm groups paid fell from 578 to 474. Emergency buying favors whoever already has the line running.
At least 77% of the money went into contracts signed before the war, and 83% of new-award dollars were not competed. Watching for new RFPs alone misses most of this market.
Bulk explosives and fuzes fell while missiles rose 2.5×. The Army's 1 October Energetics Center of Excellence RFI is the clearest sign of where it plans to spend next.
First-article testing appears at 6.7× the federal rate and single-offer competitions run at 48.7%. Firms that qualify a component now become the second sources these frameworks require.
This report comes from FedSift's award and solicitation index, the same data capture teams use for recompete radar, incumbent analysis and Sources Sought tracking. It counts obligations only, never IDIQ ceilings, and FedSift flags sole-source notices like the Patriot launcher notice above before they reach a bid list.
Run the same analysis for your product code or NAICS: which munitions notices are open now, which are set aside for you, who holds the contracts ending in your window, and which buyers are asking for new sources.
FedSift Market Reports break down one federal market every other week. No. 01: Where the Drone Money Goes. No. 02: The Parts Gap. See all reports.